With the 2026 Kentucky General Assembly, gratefully, barreling to a close, leaving the Commonwealth worse off than when it commenced, the state’s voters can finally renew speculation on a big, pending event — is he or isn’t he?
Talk has flowed freely for months now over the possibility of Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear running for the Democratic presidential nomination, a political festivity that is creeping closer than you might anticipate. Beshear’s second and final four-year term ends on December 7, 2027. With nothing better to do, having skipped this year’s campaign to replace the retiring U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Bluegrass is thinking ol’ Andy might as well just go ahead and make a run for the White House.
All signs indicate the boy is ready to make the plunge. His face shows up frequently on the Sunday morning news programs and, while he is playing the cute game these folks always play about not having made a definitive decision, he hasn’t displayed any disinterest.
It seems the only thing that could be stopping Beshear, assuming there are no photos circulating of him as a cross-dresser with balloons implanted in his dress to serve as bosoms, is the sudden realization of the ungodly expectation of him raising millions of dollars and organizing a nationwide campaign while remaining bright and cheery for the television cameras every second of every day.
So, given what we know, what are his chances? From here, I’d say better than most Kentuckians expect.
But first, a quick story.
Back in the late 1980s I was involved in finding a new minister for the church I was attending. That duty brought me at one point to a service at, as I recollect, Crestwood Christian Church in Lexington, where I ran into an acquaintance from covering the state capital in Frankfort, Steve Beshear, who I believe was still lieutenant governor at the time.
Steve and I took to talking at the back of the sanctuary after the service and I recall spotting two wild boys running around the joint as if they were re-enacting the charge up San Juan Hill. One of the boys, of course, was Steve’s son, the young Andrew Graham Beshear, the future governor.
Now he looks to be running for president of the United States. I believe it was Willie Nelson who wrote “Ain’t it funny how time slips away.’’
At any rate, there’s a reason Beshear is drawing interest from the cognoscenti. He’s relatively young, 51 at the time of the next presidential election, accomplished, makes a nice presentation, comes across as intelligent and sincere, empathizes with folks down on their luck and has avoided scandal in the scandal capital of the Commonwealth.
But the biggest selling point of all is the most obvious – in a suddenly and overwhelmingly Republican state, where the GOP has a super-majority in the state House and Senate, that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Wendell Ford of Owensboro in 1992, Beshear has emerged victorious in three consecutive statewide campaigns including two for governor, beating incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019.
So, he’s moderate, experienced and the head of a southern state, at least culturally speaking. Add a competent campaign team and whadayagot? Bill Clinton 2.0.
But hold the invitations to the inaugural ball. Potholes quickly turn into canyons on the presidential campaign trail and there are already plenty of imposing obstacles to be addressed.
Let’s start with the acknowledgement that the contemporary Democratic Party is urban based. Despite the fact that Louisville is the nation’s 28th largest city population-wise and Lexington’s population is larger than cities like St. Louis and Cincinnati, it is viewed as, and often acts like, a rural outpost. That might prove advantageous in the early portion of the Democratic primary schedule if, for instance, South Carolina maintains its position of an early voting state. But New York, California and Illinois loom.
The Democrats have taken great pride in championing the electoral prospects of women and Blacks like Hilary Clinton, former Vice President and 2024 presidential candidate Kamala Harris and President Barak Obama. Beshear, you probably have noticed, is neither. A significant portion of the Democratic electorate likely will hold out for a candidate from a traditionally rebuffed sector of the population, which could impact his plans.
But there is a growing faction, those who are willing to pay any cost to annihilate any and all remnants of Trumpism, that maintains a good old traditional, White male candidate – and Beshear certainly qualifies – would attract more support from voters in both the primary and general election. Late last year, for instance, former First Lady Michelle Obama asserted that America “is not ready for a woman” president. The political website Axios recently reported, “Democratic strategists have put it bluntly, with several saying a version of ‘It has to be a white guy.’”
And it’s generally thought that Beshear is at least slightly to the right of current Democratic Party orthodoxy, which would certainly poison any hope of attracting enthusiasm from the party’s Bernie Sanders-Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faction, a bloc that seems to be growing.
But Beshear has recently come out strong against President-cum-Dictator Donald J. Trump, the bete noire of every Democrat not named Sen. John Fetterman and most clear-thinking Americans. But, interestingly, Beshear has proved particularly vocal in criticizing Vice President JD Vance, who spent summers with his grandparents in Breathitt County and is considered the frontrunner to replace the term-limited Trump.
That is, of course, if Trump deigns to leave.
“We need a next administration in D.C. that is not Donald Trump, and it’s not JD Vance either,” Beshear told WHAS-TV in Louisville during a stop in Covington.
Vance, he has said, is “the most arrogant politician I have ever seen.’’
In many ways, Beshear will likely run as a reverse image of Trump, one who seeks to unite rather than divide, eschews volatile language, acts respectfully, doesn’t treat 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue as his personal ATM, tames the rhetoric and doesn’t douse his overly well-done steak with ketchup. That might raise some concerns within a Democratic electorate that, understandably enraged by Trumpism, wants to fight fire with fire. On the other side, some voters might want to ditch the bellicosity, lies and nastiness that have marked the Trump presidency, in which case Beshear might just be their man.
But the real question centers on positioning. It’s early, obviously, but no one, with the possible exception of California Gov. Gavin Newsome, has separated from the pack of a dozen contender, give or take. Newsome has attracted attention for his unrelenting attacks on Trump, an effort that has generated substantial early party support. Newsome will likely be able to raise the money in the long run, but his flip-flops during his controversial administration in the Golden State have yet to draw much attention and his elitist persona could come back to bite him.
Harris may make a second bid and should be credited with waging a decent campaign against Trump under difficult circumstances in 2024. But return engagements, despite former President Richard Nixon’s success in 1968 after losing in 1960, rarely bear fruit. See Dewey, Tom and Stevenson, Adlai, for examples. It will be good to remember an old Kentucky saying, which I first heard from former GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgey some years ago – There’s no lesson to be learned from the second kick of a mule.
Others, like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire to Beshear’s left, certainly have a decent case to make. The number of viable women candidates seems limited at this time – Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has hinted she won’t run. Another contender, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, is popular with the rank-and-file but has never held an elected position above mayor of South Bend, IN.
There are plenty of potential contenders. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, who would be one of the few Black hopefuls in the field should he run, has held his office for only three years and reports out of Annapolis indicate he’s not very well liked by the Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was strongly considered for the vice president’s slot for Harris, but his strong pro-Israel stance might not play after the Gaza and Iran situations.
Such is the point. There’s a potential for a large field of contenders. They all have reasons to face themselves in the mirror in the morning and believe they are looking at the next president of the United States. And they all have drawbacks, some substantial.
Beshear offers relatively few disadvantages, has significant experience, obvious electoral successes and has carved out a middle ground while almost all of the others play to the left side of the party.
If his positioning proves popular in the states not located along the coasts, he has a halfway decent shot.
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Written by Bill Straub, a member of the Kentucky Journalism Hall of Fame. Cross-posted from the NKY Tribune.
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