Welcome, Derby visitors, in person and online!
Each year this column looks at races that go on in Kentucky almost all the time, for elective office, and our card is busy: Two fully contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, and three for the House, with Elon Musk actively involved in one of the former and President Trump in one of the latter, trying to oust maverick Rep. Thomas Massie. And next year’s race for governor started last week.
On top of that, Republican Rep. James Comer also has a very high national profile and is the early favorite for governor; Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is an all-but-declared candidate for president; and Republican Sen. Rand Paul also seems likely to run, as he did 10 years ago before Trump nabbed half his voters.
Sen. Mitch McConnell is retiring after being one of the most nation’s consequential politicians and the longest-serving Senate party leader. He will get a state Capitol statue, but he broke with Trump after the 2020 election, so in a Trump-dominated party, his possible successors have tried to separate themselves from him though he has employed all three.
The true McConnell protégé is Daniel Cameron, an African American and former state attorney general who first separated himself by jumping into the 2023 governor’s race with Trump’s endorsement. He lost to incumbent Beshear. Early in the Senate race, he criticized McConnell for opposing three of Trump’s controversial Cabinet nominees.
“Some folks on his team didn’t like that,” Cameron said recently, “and they supported Andy Barr,” the Lexington congressman who has a marginal lead for the May 19 primary. That has left Cameron short of money, but he’s within striking distance, as indicated by recent attacks on him from a Barr-connected political action committee.
Until then, the ad fight was between Barr and businessman Nate Morris, who has the weakest tie to McConnell (an internship) and the strongest ties to Trump’s inner circle; Musk gave $10 million to a PAC supporting Morris. All three candidates are sucking up to Trump, hoping to get his endorsement or prevent one of the others from getting it. That has made for a nasty, dispiriting primary. Cameron’s first ad, which is strongly religious, strikes a different chord.
Whoever wins the nomination will be open to charges of being a rubber stamp for Trump, but in a strong Trump state, the charge is likely to have little impact if it’s carried by former state Rep. Charles Booker, the Democratic front-runner. Booker, an African American, is inspiring, but too liberal for Kentucky, a state that likes Democratic social programs but not the Democratic social-issues agenda.
The Democrats who might have a chance, former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath (“country over party”) and thoroughbred trainer Dale Romans (“an independent Democrat”), are competing for votes of moderate Democrats, a shrinking group. McGrath lost to Barr in 2018 and McConnell in 2020, and is having trouble getting another look from voters. Romans likens himself to West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, but may have too much ground to make up in the stretch.
Massie, more libertarian than Republican, helped lead the fight to release the Epstein files and has a following in the Fourth District, which runs from near Louisville to the state’s northeast corner. During 13-plus years in Congress, he has established a base that seems likely to withstand Trump’s backing of retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who’s been a poor campaigner. A Massie win could have significant national repercussions, showing that it’s possible to buck the president and survive politically. It is likely to be the nation’s most-watched race in May.
In Barr’s Sixth District, both parties have busy primaries for his seat. The early Republican leader is Dr. Ralph Alvarado, an ex-state senator who ran for lieutenant governor with then-Gov. Matt Bevin in 2019 and calls himself “President Trump’s MAHA doctor.” Like Barr and Morris, he didn’t participate in a KET candidate forum. Biotech entrepreneur and political newcomer Greg Plucinski notes in an ad that Alvarado took a job in Tennessee (state public health commissioner); Plucinski favors term limits, as does state Rep. Ryan Dotson, a businessman and pastor. Both are 2020 election deniers.
Democrat Zack Dembo is running an anti-Trump campaign, saying he quit the Justice Department because Trump is using it to attack his enemies. Erin Petrey is the outspoken progressive in the race, David Kloiber is a self-funding former Lexington councilman, and former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson has support from established Democrats, including Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, who started running for governor April 20.
Fifth District Rep. Hal Rogers, the House’s most senior member, faces his first test in decades from Republican upstart Kevin Smith, who has an ad that starts with a slide thanking Rogers for 46 years in Congress. What a backhand.
Happy Derby!
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Al Cross has covered Kentucky politics for over 50 years. His column originates in the Northern Kentucky Tribune, which offers it to other publications with appropriate credit.
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