One of the big stories of 2025 was the Virginia legislative election, where for the first time in many years, the Democratic party fielded a candidate for each of the 100 seats. They held 51 seats before the election in November, and 64 afterward, flipping 13 seats from red to blue.
According to one consultant involved in some of the races, the state party was very clear with candidates in ruby-red districts: “You’re not going to win. But, by running for this seat, you keep the Republican incumbent from sending his campaign money elsewhere to support other Republicans.” And, it worked.
So, with that backdrop from a neighboring state, how did the Kentucky Dems do at challenging every seat? And even if they didn’t field a candidate for every race, how do the 2026 filings compare to 2024?
Spoiler alert: Didn’t come close to challenging in every seat.
Spoiler alert #2: But, it was only a smidge worse than 2024.
The numbers
I pulled the final spreadsheet from the Secretary of State’s office and used a pivot-table analysis to see which parties filed for which seats. Remember that only half the Senate is up every two years (19 seats), while the entire House is up (100 seats).
I then assigned one of three colors to each district:
- Red if the seat only had Republicans running (Dems didn’t run anybody).
- Blue if the seat only had Democrats running (Repubs didn’t run anybody).
- Purple if both parties had at least one person running.
Here’s the comparison:
| Senate | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Red | 8 | 9 |
| Blue | 4 | 0 |
| Purple | 7 | 10 |
| House | 2024 | 2026 |
| Red | 43 | 42 |
| Blue | 12 | 9 |
| Purple | 45 | 49 |
So, in the Senate in 2024, Dems didn’t challenge in 8 seats, and Repubs didn’t challenge in 4 seats. In 2026, there are no safe Dem seats, as Repubs are challenging in every district.
In the House, Dems are challenging one more district that two years ago, and Repubs are challenging three more districts than two years ago. So, there is one less safe Repub seat, and three less safe Dem seats.
The maps
I did maps of both the Senate and the House to match the analysis, which are below. And before you freak out over how much red there is, remember: land doesn’t vote. All the districts represent roughly the same number of voters, so don’t let red covering three counties fool you – it’s the same number of votes as one of those tiny districts in Louisville.
But still, that’s an awful lot of counties with no Dem challenger in sight.
Thoughts? Comments? Leave them in the Comments section below.
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